Phillips Leads Trade Week with 235M Sale
The watch auction business has posted its strongest season ever, with Phillips closing a combined total of over $235 million across its Geneva, Hong Kong, and New York watch sales. This is a significant increase from previous years, with the money at the top of the market remaining strong.
The rooms at IWJG and the Bay Area shows have been telling the same story for months, with the trophy end being bid on heavily. For a more detailed look at the independents and Patek complications that carried these totals, the watch market recap provides insight.
Swiss Exports Keep Running
The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported that June exports were up almost 11.2 percent, to nearly 2.4 billion francs. This is a real number, not a rebound off a soft base, and it lands on top of a two-year comparison that shows exports up 2.6 percent against 2024.
However, shipments to the United States fell 14.8 percent across the first six months. This decline is not a demand collapse, but rather a channel that overstocked into the strong years and is now selling down what it already owns before writing new orders.
Related: Richemont Jumps 20% as Gold Falls
Diamonds Finally Stop Falling
The most important line of the week for the stone side came from Rapaport, which reported that all four major diamond categories posted flat or positive figures in July. The RAPI for 1-carat goods held stable, ending 13 straight months of declines.
The smaller sizes actually led, with 0.30-carat up 1.6 percent and 0.50-carat up 1.8 percent for its best month since March 2025. This turn is worth sitting with because of how long it took to arrive, and it means that sellers who have been marking down every month can stop guessing where the floor is.
De Beers took in $665 million across its three Q2 sights, a 44 percent drop from the $1.2 billion of a year earlier. The per-carat average sales price fell about 37 percent, from $174 to $110, which is the cost of clearing the channel and letting realized prices come down far enough that the boxes move and the sightholders can make a margin again.
Luxury Split Down the Middle
Richemont posted fiscal first-quarter sales of EUR 6.33 billion, up 20 percent at constant exchange rates, while LVMH reported first-half watches and jewelry revenue of EUR 5.15 billion, down 5 percent as reported and off 3 percent organically. This split is not new, but twenty points is a wide gap for two houses selling into the same customer.
The money at the top is still there and still spending, but it is choosing more selectively than it did two years ago. Cartier and Van Cleef are taking that spend, and the softer LVMH watches and jewelry print is the other side of the same ledger.
Related: De Beers Sale Nears as Gold Prices Rise
Add it up and the week reads better than any single beat suggested. The auction record says the top of the watch market is intact, Swiss export strength says the factories are shipping even with the U.S. being soft, the diamond index turning positive says the stone side has found a floor.
The strength at the top and the flat print at the bottom of the diamond market may meet in the middle before the fall shows, or the retail counter may stay cautious into the holidays. On current numbers, the trade is steadier than it has been since spring, and the burden of proof has shifted back to the bears.
Between now and the next batch, it will be worth watching whether the August RAPI holds its July gains rather than giving them back, and whether Swiss exports to the United States claw back any of that 14.8 percent as the tariff picture settles.
They will be watching these two lines to see where the working end of this trade is headed into the fourth quarter.
