Natural diamond output hits 25 year low
The global output of natural diamonds has reached its lowest level in at least 25 years, resulting in a reduced supply of newly mined diamonds for consumers. This decline is not only due to individual mine closures, but also a decade of subdued investment in exploration and new project development, leaving a relatively thin pipeline of commercially viable new deposits.
Now that the sector is moving into a period of persistently reduced output, it can no longer rely solely on sheer quantity for expansion. The focus must shift toward proving the worth, scarcity, and heritage of existing stones as well as newly released ones.
This situation should prompt jewelers to sharpen the natural-diamond narrative: they need to convey each stone’s scarcity, geological source, lineage, and travel story, weaving these traits into presentation, promotion, and the overall customer experience.
Shifting Focus from Volume to Value
A shrinking supply forces a rapid rethinking of how diamonds are shown to buyers. While cut, color, clarity, carat weight and an expanding set of technical specs will still form a base, the natural-diamond story must go well beyond the classic 4Cs.
Factors such as origin, age of formation, scarcity, provenance and the path from mine to owner can give a single diamond a richer identity and a more engaging tale. Dating back roughly a span of a billion to three billion years, natural diamonds constitute a limited resource, with worldwide reserves estimated at about 1.7 billion carats.
The dwindling of key deposits makes this limitation ever more concrete. Western Australia’s Argyle mine, once the chief supplier of pink diamonds worldwide, shut down in 2020, and Canada’s Diavik operation produced its final output this year.
With freshly mined diamonds becoming scarcer, attributes like rarity, origin and provenance are likely to gain importance alongside the conventional metrics familiar to shoppers. This holds particular weight in a jewelry market where options are more plentiful than ever.
Lessons from Other Luxury Sectors
Other luxury sectors, such as fine mechanical watches, offer useful lessons. Following the quartz crisis of the 1980s, the industry made a strategic pivot, developing a positioning that extended well beyond the basic function of timekeeping. Manufacture, craftsmanship, provenance, rarity, and history all became central to how individual pieces were understood and valued.
Natural diamonds could take a comparable path, with jewelers clarifying their story for consumers even as output falls. Certified origin and geological scarcity can thus become integral to how a stone’s quality and price are evaluated and desired.
Like luxury watches, natural diamonds possess an extra facet that merges their creation narrative with human legacy. When passed down through families, they develop a personal provenance. For jewelers, linking these stories offers a chance to market a diamond not merely as a present purchase but as an item that can hold significance long after the initial sale.
Thus the sector must adopt trustworthy authentication, traceability and provenance frameworks that keep accurate data on origin and history across physical changes, supply-chain steps, certification, setting, initial sale, resale and inheritance. In short, rarity and provenance need to be demonstrable rather than merely claimed.
The Dubai Diamond Exchange and a precious stones community of 1,365 companies provide a unique vantage point from which to consider the transition of the natural diamond industry. Through this hub, the city sits at the intersection of the global diamond value chain as the world’s largest diamond trading hub.
Dubai provides a particularly relevant perspective on the industry’s shift, positioned between diamond-producing countries in Africa, manufacturing centres such as India, and major consumer markets across Asia, Europe, the United States, and the Middle East.
The next chapter for natural diamonds must therefore move beyond managing a market with fewer newly mined diamonds and identify ways to bridge from volume to value. Achieving this requires greater alignment across the diamond value chain, which will be a central theme of the Dubai Diamond Conference, taking place from 26 to 27 October.
DMCC sees these shifts across mining, trading, manufacturing and distribution, firsthand, through the Dubai Diamond Exchange. The city’s position allows it to facilitate trade and commerce.
Digitising the Diamond Industry
Technology can play a key role in the diamond industry, particularly in terms of authentication and traceability. Artificial intelligence-powered interfaces can help retailers engage with customers and support their purchase decisions.
The industry can benefit from adopting digital practices, such as maintaining a single source of truth for diamond provenance and origin. This can help jewellers and brands tailor their story for different consumer segments.
